It's now waiting time for the earnings that will come in August for many value stocks, such as HRBN and TXIC. Really nice chart is forming for HRBN. Hoping to see more volume with 2 weeks left before the earnings.
HEK is looking very good in the past few days - mentioned on the watch list few weeks ago...
Here is another stock that's worth mentioning. This is kind of odd to come back to this stock, but the chart is starting to look attractive. The stock is the second stock that was mentioned on this blog more than a year and a half ago :) - it's YTEC (Yucheng Technologies). Volume is coming back to this stock, and it seems to be making a good base in $10's... Break over high $11's will make the stock very attractive even if for a short term only.
Market tried to test the lows in 10800-11100 area, not going below 11k this time. So far, test was successful and it's nice to see a recovery after yesterday's big drop. We are maybe on the way to 13k by late Sep / Oct. time.
Let's see what happens from here....
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Quick update and some thoughts
Just a quick update on HRBN, AFAM and TXICF.OB
Harbin Electric (HRBN) - nice chart developing. Last week we had MACD crossover with confirmation. Ever since, the stock has been inching higher. We still have ways to go, but it's nice to see that the lows in $12.90-13.00 area were held again.
Now, we are looking at at the next big resistance in $16.00 - 17.00 area.... Will be interesting to see if the inverse head & shoulders pattern develops in that area.
We heard the details of the acquisition. The acquisition price was at the high end of the estimates, but it's still a very good deal with accreative earnings. Earnings are coming within 2-3 weeks and I believe they should be good.
Tongxin International (TXICF.OB) - well, this day finally arrived, even though it's half a year later, than I expected :)
http://www.otcbb.com/asp/dailylist_detail.asp?d=07/22/2008&mkt_ctg=OTCBB
The stock will be listed on Nasdaq Global Market on Wednesday, July 23rd.
Earnings will be here in 2-3 weeks, as well. I don't anticipate a significant move yet, but I do hope that we'll start seeing PRs and more info coming out from the company, which should generate investors' interest.
Almost Family (AFAM) - Has been going up no matter what market was doing. Nice 50% gain from the recommended $20 buys. The volume significantly increased, and it might be good time to drop it from "undiscovered" list, at least for the time being. Great gain in a short time.
Finally, some thoughts on the market:
In the last update I mentioned that I think DOW may drop to 10,800 and that I thought 10,800-11,100 was the bottom. Well, so far it turned out exactly that way. Time will tell if this 10,800 will hold, but I still believe we'll see DOW around 13k as early as late Sep / October.
The situation reminds me of when everybody was in euphoria, when DOW was hitting 14,300 and we had our first drop. Everybody was still buying, screaming "buy that dip, we are going much higher". Well, this looks very similar to me, except the situation is reversed. We had our first good bounce, but many are still screaming "short that bounce, we are going much lower". Again, time will tell, but it seems to me that the mkt is starting to look past the credit problems and trying to look at the economy in 6-9 month frame.
Harbin Electric (HRBN) - nice chart developing. Last week we had MACD crossover with confirmation. Ever since, the stock has been inching higher. We still have ways to go, but it's nice to see that the lows in $12.90-13.00 area were held again.
Now, we are looking at at the next big resistance in $16.00 - 17.00 area.... Will be interesting to see if the inverse head & shoulders pattern develops in that area.
We heard the details of the acquisition. The acquisition price was at the high end of the estimates, but it's still a very good deal with accreative earnings. Earnings are coming within 2-3 weeks and I believe they should be good.
Tongxin International (TXICF.OB) - well, this day finally arrived, even though it's half a year later, than I expected :)
http://www.otcbb.com/asp/dailylist_detail.asp?d=07/22/2008&mkt_ctg=OTCBB
The stock will be listed on Nasdaq Global Market on Wednesday, July 23rd.
Earnings will be here in 2-3 weeks, as well. I don't anticipate a significant move yet, but I do hope that we'll start seeing PRs and more info coming out from the company, which should generate investors' interest.
Almost Family (AFAM) - Has been going up no matter what market was doing. Nice 50% gain from the recommended $20 buys. The volume significantly increased, and it might be good time to drop it from "undiscovered" list, at least for the time being. Great gain in a short time.
Finally, some thoughts on the market:
In the last update I mentioned that I think DOW may drop to 10,800 and that I thought 10,800-11,100 was the bottom. Well, so far it turned out exactly that way. Time will tell if this 10,800 will hold, but I still believe we'll see DOW around 13k as early as late Sep / October.
The situation reminds me of when everybody was in euphoria, when DOW was hitting 14,300 and we had our first drop. Everybody was still buying, screaming "buy that dip, we are going much higher". Well, this looks very similar to me, except the situation is reversed. We had our first good bounce, but many are still screaming "short that bounce, we are going much lower". Again, time will tell, but it seems to me that the mkt is starting to look past the credit problems and trying to look at the economy in 6-9 month frame.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Stocks, observation, market in general...
First, I would like to provide some updates on the stocks I'm watching or following in no paricular order:
HRBN - Harbin Electric
Back on June 19th in my post I have inserted a graph, which showed an important line that the stock was bouncing off for months. I was under impression that the market would recover due to falling oil prices. Well, the oil prices didn't fall. They just continued on impressive rally with everybody and their butlers buying anything that has the word "oil" in it. Remember dot-com era? Remember real-estate era? What does this oil rally remind you off now? I'll discuss more about this later in the post. Back to our stock. HRBN has never been doing good with market weakness, and since the market took a big plunge, it took HRBN along for a ride, especially since that support line was broken.
Now, it has been severely oversold (RSI is well below 30), but what is not oversold in this market? :) On the positive note, today it bounced off the lows in $12.90's that it's been bouncing off two times before. Plus, the bounce was very bullish, as it closed positive on good volume.
On the news front - We've heard the details of the financing: 3.5 mil shares at $14.17. It's a big dillution, but this was expected. Most of the money will go to the acquisition of the profitable company. News on this deal are supposed to hit any day now.
Yes, I'm disappointed in the short term movement of HRBN, but I like how the company is positioning itself for explosive growth in the next 2-3 years. No worries about long term potential so far.
Finally, the stock has been added to Russell 3000.
TXICF.OB - Tongxin International
Ever since hitting the resistance at all time high, we've been sliding on very small volume (except a few pre-arranged blocks). Nothing to be concerned about at this point, as the stock is really less than 10% from its highs, which is very good considered that most Chinese stocks are down 50% and more from their highs.
One thing that is bothering me is the Nasdaq listing, of course. Too many promises so far - not a good start for a company.
But, check out this latest news about the state of Chinese autosales:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080708/china_gm_ford.html
Key points:
Bodes very well for both TXICF and HRBN.
Also, it appears Fenberg has increased his holdings to 2+ mil shares compared to 1.4 mil shares from the last filing. Not sure if this was the result of warrants exercise or new purchases. In any case, it can't hurt.
CNEH.OB - China North East Petroleum.
Well, the stock has more than tripled from its lows in 2008 all the way to $5.60.
This was a great price to take a break and reevaluate. This is what a lot of people did locking in their hefty profits. Stock went down 25% after reaching its highs few days ago on good profit taking. What happens next? Hard to say: oil is falling (at least for now), there are many other good oversold plays, and nobody wants to hold anything right now. At this point, I'm dropping it from "Undiscovered" stocks, as the recent run with huge volume pretty much confirmed that the stock was indeed discovered. Perhaps it's still a good play, but triple in a few months in this tough year is more than enough.
TVOC.OB - Texas Vanguard
Never really caught up with the masses. Still undiscovered, but really not doing anything. Perhaps, earnings in August will shed some more light. At this point, there is really nothing more on it to update. Maybe one day it'll jump like CWSI.OB did as highlighted earlier in the year.
BSIC.OB - Basic Earth Science
Earnings restatements news came out of nowhere. Was well explained by CEO, and the stock even came back nicely after all the negativity. But, with oil momentum slowly dying, the stock went down as well. Plus, late filing is another factor causing a slide. Always lock in at least half of your profits when the stock is up nicely (and it was up significantly at $2.90s)
AFAM - Almost Family
As mentioned earlier, it's a recession-free market-weakness-free stock :) Just keeps on going. Long term - no other updates.
New stocks on watch at this moment: HEK, SRRY.OB
Now, where does this market go from here? I personally doubt DOW will get to 10k. It may drop to 10,800, but this is as low as it might go, in my opinion. 10800-11100 is the bottom, and if we haven't reached it yet, we might reach it soon. Perhaps, one more big scare to flush everybody out? DOW should be around 13k again as early as late Sep / October, in my opinion. Time will tell :)
Chinese stocks should get back in favor, especially with Olympics exposure. Chinese economy is not slowing down as US economy. Upcoming earnings should show that.
For now, be really careful in this market. Good luck!
HRBN - Harbin Electric
Back on June 19th in my post I have inserted a graph, which showed an important line that the stock was bouncing off for months. I was under impression that the market would recover due to falling oil prices. Well, the oil prices didn't fall. They just continued on impressive rally with everybody and their butlers buying anything that has the word "oil" in it. Remember dot-com era? Remember real-estate era? What does this oil rally remind you off now? I'll discuss more about this later in the post. Back to our stock. HRBN has never been doing good with market weakness, and since the market took a big plunge, it took HRBN along for a ride, especially since that support line was broken.
Now, it has been severely oversold (RSI is well below 30), but what is not oversold in this market? :) On the positive note, today it bounced off the lows in $12.90's that it's been bouncing off two times before. Plus, the bounce was very bullish, as it closed positive on good volume.
On the news front - We've heard the details of the financing: 3.5 mil shares at $14.17. It's a big dillution, but this was expected. Most of the money will go to the acquisition of the profitable company. News on this deal are supposed to hit any day now.
Yes, I'm disappointed in the short term movement of HRBN, but I like how the company is positioning itself for explosive growth in the next 2-3 years. No worries about long term potential so far.
Finally, the stock has been added to Russell 3000.
TXICF.OB - Tongxin International
Ever since hitting the resistance at all time high, we've been sliding on very small volume (except a few pre-arranged blocks). Nothing to be concerned about at this point, as the stock is really less than 10% from its highs, which is very good considered that most Chinese stocks are down 50% and more from their highs.
One thing that is bothering me is the Nasdaq listing, of course. Too many promises so far - not a good start for a company.
But, check out this latest news about the state of Chinese autosales:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080708/china_gm_ford.html
Key points:
- "The Chinese vehicle market has continued to grow in 2008, setting a new first half sales record," said Kevin Wale, president of GM China, in a written statement.
- U.S., European and Japanese automakers and their local partners are investing heavily to expand production and sales in China, the world's second-largest vehicle market after the United States.
- Auto sales in China have been largely unaffected by high global oil prices because government controls have kept retail gasoline and diesel prices at levels that are among the world's lowest. Automakers say sales of SUVs and luxury sedans are growing at annual rates of up to 100 percent.
Bodes very well for both TXICF and HRBN.
Also, it appears Fenberg has increased his holdings to 2+ mil shares compared to 1.4 mil shares from the last filing. Not sure if this was the result of warrants exercise or new purchases. In any case, it can't hurt.
CNEH.OB - China North East Petroleum.
Well, the stock has more than tripled from its lows in 2008 all the way to $5.60.
This was a great price to take a break and reevaluate. This is what a lot of people did locking in their hefty profits. Stock went down 25% after reaching its highs few days ago on good profit taking. What happens next? Hard to say: oil is falling (at least for now), there are many other good oversold plays, and nobody wants to hold anything right now. At this point, I'm dropping it from "Undiscovered" stocks, as the recent run with huge volume pretty much confirmed that the stock was indeed discovered. Perhaps it's still a good play, but triple in a few months in this tough year is more than enough.
TVOC.OB - Texas Vanguard
Never really caught up with the masses. Still undiscovered, but really not doing anything. Perhaps, earnings in August will shed some more light. At this point, there is really nothing more on it to update. Maybe one day it'll jump like CWSI.OB did as highlighted earlier in the year.
BSIC.OB - Basic Earth Science
Earnings restatements news came out of nowhere. Was well explained by CEO, and the stock even came back nicely after all the negativity. But, with oil momentum slowly dying, the stock went down as well. Plus, late filing is another factor causing a slide. Always lock in at least half of your profits when the stock is up nicely (and it was up significantly at $2.90s)
AFAM - Almost Family
As mentioned earlier, it's a recession-free market-weakness-free stock :) Just keeps on going. Long term - no other updates.
New stocks on watch at this moment: HEK, SRRY.OB
Now, where does this market go from here? I personally doubt DOW will get to 10k. It may drop to 10,800, but this is as low as it might go, in my opinion. 10800-11100 is the bottom, and if we haven't reached it yet, we might reach it soon. Perhaps, one more big scare to flush everybody out? DOW should be around 13k again as early as late Sep / October, in my opinion. Time will tell :)
Chinese stocks should get back in favor, especially with Olympics exposure. Chinese economy is not slowing down as US economy. Upcoming earnings should show that.
For now, be really careful in this market. Good luck!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
