Update on Conrad Industries (CNRD.PK)

First, I'll recap my original message on April 10th (only 4 months ago), when CNRD.PK was trading at $6.50. And then, I'll update it with the latest earnings and new targets. I think it's important to look back at April's message to see what has changed and to check the amazing growth in just 4 months....So, here is the April 10th message:

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Highly profitable company reported excellent earnings today.

http://www.pinksheets.com/pdfservlet?id=10409

Excerpt from this release:


REPORT TO OUR FELLOW SHAREHOLDERS
The positive changes we began to experience in the latter part of 2005 continued during 2006 as we completed the year with record
revenue, net income, and backlog, and a much improved balance sheet. At the same time our workforce achieved an outstanding
safety record.

Although, between 2002 and the first half of 2005 we experienced a difficult Gulf of Mexico energy marine construction and repair
market, we have seen in 2006 a major increase in projects for other commercial customers as well as an increase in energy projects.

Because much of our repair work comes from the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas industry, improved conditions in that industry have
positively affected our repair segment. For 2006, 45.5% of total revenue was energy related, 38.5% was other commercial and
16.0% was government. This compares to 22.6% energy, 38.2% other commercial and 39.2% government in 2005.

During 2006, we added $113.1 million of new contracts to our new construction segment, of which $42.3 million was related to the
oil and gas industry and $70.8 million was related to other commercial projects, generally attributable to increased spending for
construction activities, double skin tank barges, and harbor tugs. As a result of this increased activity, margins have improved on
recent new construction contracts. Our backlog as of December 31, 2006 was approximately $84.5 million compared to $35.4
million as of December 31, 2005. At December 31, 2006, 63.3% of our vessel construction backlog was from other commercial
contracts, 31.7% was from energy related customers and 5.0% was from government contracts. This compares to backlog at
December 31, 2005 of 38.4% other commercial, 0.0% energy, and 61.6% government.
Our construction projects in progress as of December 31, 2006 consisted of 34 vessels which includes two 124-foot towboats, five
double-skin tank barges, an ST tug, three z-drive tugs, a 200 class liftboat, five 175 class liftboats, a 3300 hp steel towboat, and
sixteen barges ranging in size from 120 feet to 160 feet. Our customers comprise a very diverse group that crosses a wide range of
businesses including the energy sector, dredging, construction, towing, and bunkering markets, as well as the US Army Corps of
Engineers.

During 2006 we delivered 30 vessel construction jobs of various types and sizes which are the most jobs delivered in one year by
our Company. We delivered nine deck barges, an anchor scow, four crane barges, two inland double skin tank barges, four spud
barges, three double skin tank barges, three landing barges, a fish stocking vessel, an aluminum fire and patrol boat, and two inland
tow boats.

During 2006, revenue increased 88.4% to $121.8 million from $64.7 million in 2005. The increase in revenue for the current year is
primarily a result of the overall increase in production hours. Vessel construction hours increased 73.0% compared to 2005, while
repair and conversion hours increased 125.2% compared to 2005.
We reported net income of $5.9 million and net income per diluted share of $0.81 for the year ended December 31, 2006 compared
to net income of $111,000 and income per diluted share of $0.02 for the year ended December 31, 2005. This increase in net income
is primarily the result of a very strong market for our repair services.

We revised our loan agreement and extended our maturity date to 2011 and increased our line of credit to $10 million. We reduced
our total loan balance from $18.3 million at December 31, 2005 to $10.2 million at December 31, 2006 while increasing our net
working capital from $6.3 million at December 31, 2005 to $7.6 million at December 31, 2006.

Our Company is very different today compared to a few years ago. We have a more diversified customer and product mix. We’ve
expanded our capacity with the investments that we’ve made and we’ve grown our workforce and management in order to handle
the additional production levels. With an improved marine environment, the strong support of our loyal employees, customers and
suppliers, our record new construction backlog and stronger financial condition, we are optimistic about our continuing ability to
increase gross profit and the bottom line in 2007, leading to an increase in shareholder value.


To sum it all up:

Net income for 2006 is 0.81 compared to 0.02 for 2005 (5.9 mil vs 111k)

Revenues increased 88.4% to $121.8 million from $64.7 million in 2005


EPS progression through 2006 is as following:
.13, .17, .19 and .32 for Q1 through Q4, respectively. Earnings are fully taxed and diluted.

Backlog up to $85M versus $35M yoy. And that's for new constructions...
Doesn't even include repair revenues (which account for 40% of total revenues)

Could be at least $1.2 in earnings for 2007 for $7 dollar stock....
At highly convservative PE of 10, this should be at least $12 dollar stock....

Add to this, low O/S and float (momo)

O/S is only 7.28 mil

Last, but not least, it's a hurricane stock with potentially big hurricane season on the way.



Profile:

Conrad Industries, Inc. engages in the construction, conversion, and repair of various marine vessels for commercial and governmental customers in the United States. It also engages in the fabrication of modular components of offshore drilling rigs; and floating, production, storage, and offloading vessels. The company constructs various steel and aluminum marine vessels, including large and small deck cargo barges, single and double hull tank barges, lift boats, push boats, towboats, offshore tugboats, and offshore supply vessels. Its conversion and repair of steel and aluminum marine vessels consist of lengthening the mid-bodies of vessels, modifying vessels to permit their use for a different type of activity, and other modifications to increase the cargo carrying capacity or functionality of a vessel. The company operates four shipyards in South Louisiana and Texas with direct access to the Gulf of Mexico. Conrad Industries was founded in 1948 and is based in Morgan City, Louisiana.



They used to be listed on Nasdaq, but were not profitable, and chose to delist in 2005 due to Sarbanes Oxley expenses.....
Now, that they are highly profitable, they may try Nasdaq again, in my opinion.



Once again - highly profitable, low float, low O/S, hurricane momo, unknown play...just repoted huge earnings.

References:

http://www.pinksheets.com/quote/finance.jsp?symbol=CNRD

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Now, here is an update as of August 6th, 2007:

The stock is now up approximately 170% since original recommendation in April.
Late Thusday of last week, they reported huge earnings:

http://www.pinksheets.com/otciq/ajax/showFinancialReportById?id=11384

They reported $0.63 dilluted ($0.64 basic) on revenues of $41.3 million.
O/S is only 7.3 mil, float is only 3.6 mil.

Here is the new progression of earnings showing amazing sequential growth:

Sequential growth:

Q1 2006 = $0.13
Q2 2006 = $0.17
Q3 2006 = $0.19
Q4 2006 = $0.32
Q1 2007 = $0.45
Q2 2007 = $0.63

Earnings in last 2 quarters exceed total 2006 earnings by ~50%.....At this rate, they may get well above $2.20 in earnings in 2007...

Key points from the latest earnings release:


Backlog was $82.4 million at June 30, 2007 as compared to $84.5 million at December 31, 2006 and $70.8 million at June 30, 2006. Subsequently, we signed contracts with various customers for a total of $13.7 million, including options. Additionally, we were awarded a contract with a contract price of $22.5 million by the Texas
Department of Transportation which we expect to sign during August 2007 for the construction of a 264’x66’x15’ passenger/vehicle ferry scheduled for delivery during 2009.


This means they have $82.4 mil + another $36.2 mil in backlog.

Even at highly conservative PE of 15 given this kind of growth, this is a $33 stock....

Food for thought:


Check the competitor:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tod -> Todd Shipyards Corp. (NYSE:TOD)

Only $0.57 reported for 2006 on $125.5 mil in revenues in Todd Shipyards (TOD) and the stock is trading at $22 at PE of 38.