Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Update on Harbin Electric (HRBN)

Here are the News that are not available on the wires yet - only for subscribers to AutomotiveWorld:

http://www.automotiveworld.com/ACM/content.asp?contentid=64520

China: Harbin Electric secures supply order from Intier Automotive
By Automotive World staff writer (SS)
31 October, 2007
Source: Automotive World
Harbin Electric has secured a five-year contract to supply micro motors to North American automotive component manufacturer Intier Automotive, reports Automotive News China. Intier will in turn supply the micro motors to Chrysler LLC.


-------------
This is very big. Let's see a PR on this with more details shorly....

Monday, October 29, 2007

Last Update on CEUC.OB (now CAST)

CEUC.OB is now trading on Nasdaq as of today. New symbol is CAST. It had another massive gain today. Volume looks very good. It has now doubled from the lows and has been found by the masses. I will no longer provide any updates on this company, as it no longer satisfies my "undiscovered" condition.

Good luck!

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Another Update on Asia Automotive Acquisition (AAAC.OB)

Just wanted to show the Board of Directors and Executive Management at Close of Transaction:

William R. Herren, Director, Chairman of Tongxin International, Chief Executive Officer
- 35+ years automotive experience including both vehicle and component operations; including 15 years corporate finance
- Profit/loss responsibility for several Delphi business units
- Directed M&A activities resulting in over $250 million in investments in Asia in mid 90s

Rudy Wilson, Director, Chief Operating OFficer in Tongxin International
- 33+ years automotive experience including 3 years living and working in China
- Served on several Chinese joint venture boards in various director capacities
- Responsible for identifying growth opportunities for new Chinese JVs

Dr. David J. Brophy, Chief Financial Officer, Secretary
- A member of the Finance Faculty at the University of Michigan School of Business Administration from 1968 and Director of its Center for Venture Capital and Private Equity Finance since 1992
- Advisory and consultant activities in the public and private sector include such funds as Compass Technology Partners, Plymouth Ventures, and Bio-Star Ventures and various government agencies in the US, Australia and France
- He is a founding member of the editorial board of the Journal of Private Equity and the International Journal of Venture Capital

William Zielke, Director
- 25+ years automotive M&A experience including 14 years experience in the China automotive market
- Served on boards with supplier firms in China, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Belgium and Korea
- Authored board training modules and conducted training

William A. Ebbert, Director
- Formerly Executive-in-Charge of Delphi Automotive Asia Operations
- 35+ years automotive experience in finance and planning
- Directed Delphi Corporate start-up activities in Asia Pacific

Pilar Abliac-Murillo, Director
- Director of Remy International Mexican manufacturing operaions
- 25+ automotive experience including assignments in Europe and North America
- Manufacturing and HR focuses assignments

Zhang Ruanxiang, Director, Chief Executive Officer of Hunan Tongxin, Vice Chairman of Tongxin International
- Founded Hunan Tongxin in 1984
- Has been recognized twice as one of the top 10 economic outstanding business executives and once as an excellent private enterpreneur in Hunan province.
- also the committee member of China Private Enterpreneur Association and premier vice president of Hunan Private Enterpreneur Soceity

Peng Weiwu, Director, Chief Operating Officer of Hunan Tongxin
- 20+ years with Tongxin helping to grow the company
- Responsible for improving Tongxin's production process and enhancing product development resulting in the development of 128 brand products and 9 product series in the past 22 years
- Recognized by the China in Institute of Technology in 2003 for developing Tongxin's "Thin Stamping Process and Design Theory in Vehicle Manufacturing Application"

Al Xing, Director
- Background in Mechanical Engineering
- 15+ years electronics software experience in both the uS and China
- Currently employed with IBM (Canada)

Xiao Tangbing, Director
- Background in business administration
- 30+ years experience in China's machinery and electronics controls industry
- Currently chairman and general manager of Changsha Machinery and Electronic Equipment, Inc.

Update on Asia Automotive Acquisition (AAAC.OB)

I would like to present an additional information on Asia Automotive Acquisition (AAAC.OB). For the most part, it is based on the proxy statement filed by the company one month ago. Here is the link:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1332552/000133255207000027/proxytest4.txt

Now, some important points from this proxy:

First, comparison to the other companies in the industry, according to the board:

Overall the Company examined 65 automotive supplier firms traded on United
States stock exchanges.Subsequently eight companies were selected based on
their single or dual focus technical competency which is similar to that
of Hunan Tongxin. Additionally, we analyzed gross and net Income margins
and revenue growth rates. The board then examined the forward price earnings
ratios of these companies. The median and mean forward price earnings ratios
for the eight companies were 17.7 and 22.4, respectively. The board used
this range of price earnings ratios as the most representative.

The board made several assumptions in deriving statistics about Hunan Tongxin
that were used solely for the purpose of management's determining a value of
Hunan Tongxin. Investors should not place any weight on these projections,
because any projection is subject to many assumptions, some or all of which
may not be correct or occur as assumed. The assumptions were for the
projection of net income for 2007. The net income assumption for fiscal year
2007 was $9.5 million. The projected net income for 2007 was determined to be
reasonable in light of the net income for 2006 of approximately $5.7 million,
and the level of existing and new contracts at the time the assessment was
made. The level of contracts has increased significantly from 2006 to 2007.
Hunan Tongxin has long-term debt of approximately $5.2 million and and cash
and marketable securities of approximately $5.9 million as of June 30, 2007
and it is assumed that it will not leverage the business going forward.

The starting point was to determine enterprise value of Hunan Tongxin, which
was derived by the following formula: enterprise value equals market
capitalization, plus long term debt, plus preferred equity, minus cash and
cash equivalents. Using this formula, the board of directors arrived at a
projected enterprise value for Hunan Tongxin of $169,100,000 for 2007. This
was derived using a market capitalization of $168,150,000 an amount
determined by taking the fair market comparable capitalization using an
implied market capitalization equal to a comparable price earnings ratio of
17.7 multiplied by the assumed earnings of Hunan Tongxin for 2007 of
$9,500,000. There is anticipated to be no additional long-term debt in 2007
over the existing $5,300,000 and no preferred equity issued and outstanding
in Hunan Tongxin. Cash and cash equivalents of Hunan Tongxin for 2007 were
assumed to be $5,900,000 resulting from Hunan Tongxin's ongoing operations.

Based on the assumed 6,380,250 shares that will be outstanding upon
completion of the Equity Acquisition, the Board computed a per share price
of $26.50, or approximately $19.06 above the redemption value of AAAC's
common stock (approximately $7.60). Stockholders should note that these
evaluation computations are not predictions of the actual market price of
AAAC either upon consummation of the transaction or at any time after that.


The AAAC board of directors believes because of the financial skills
and automotive background of all of its directors, it was qualified to
make this analysis itself and conclude that the acquisition of Hunan Tongxin
met this 80% test requirement without recourse to an independent source.
The entire AAAC board of directors is comprised of directors with extensive
experience in analyzing acquistion targets and assessing their future values.
AAAC officers William R. Herren and Rudy Wilson have been involved in
identifying and completing seven investment projects in China with over $250
million in direct investment while employed at General Motors. David J.Brophy,
leads the University of Michigan's Private Equity and Entrepreneurship Center
and brings considerable independent expertise in this area. Donald L. Runkle
brings experience from numerous global acquisitions during his tenure at
Delphi Automotive.



Now, the background of the company being acquired:

BACKGROUND

Hunan Tongxin is the largest independent Chinese supplier of Engineered
Vehicle Body Structures ("EVBS") capable of providing products for both
light and commercial vehicles in addition to designing, fabricating and
testing dies used to stamp automotive body panels. EVBS consists of
exterior body panels including doors, floor pans, hoods, side panels,
fenders. Hunan Tongxin also manufactures complete cab structures for
commercial vehicles. Hunan Tongxin's components must meet exacting
dimensions for fit and finish before they are assembled and finally
painted. These capabilities enable Hunan Tongxin to participate
effectively in all sectors of the Chinese automotive market including
light and commercial vehicles.



STRATEGY

Hunan Tongxin captured approximately 7% of the independent EVBS market
in 2005 and plans to increase its share to 20% by 2010. It anticipates
entering the North American and European collision parts aftermarket
based on what it perceives to be products that are comparable to those
of other automotive suppliers but selling at prices that will give it
a competitive advantage.

Hunan Tongxin's goal is to become one of the world's premier EVBS
companies.

The principal elements of its core business strategies are so
follows:

* Maintaining its leadership position in China's EVBS

* Enhancing the leadership position in die design and fabrication.

* Increasing value added content for cab assembly.

* Focusing on high-value EVBS design services

Since 2004 Hunan Tongxin had successfully expanded to the following
Southeast Asia exports markets:

* Vietnam EVBS market

* Cambodia EVBS market




More updates will come soon....

Friday, October 26, 2007

Update on Chinacast Education (CEUC.OB)

As mentioned earlier this morning, Chinacast is to be traded on Nasdaq. PR has just been released at 3pm EST as expected:

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/071026/129805.html

ChinaCast Education Corporation Announces Transfer of Shares to the NASDAQ Global Market From the OTC and New Ticker Symbol: 'CAST'
Friday October 26, 3:00 pm ET


BEIJING, Oct. 26, 2007 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- ChinaCast Education Corporation (OTC BB:CEUC.OB - News), one of the leading e-learning and training services providers in China, today announced that it received approval to move its listing from the OTC to the NASDAQ Global Market.
ADVERTISEMENT


Trading of ChinaCast's common shares, warrants and units on the NASDAQ Global Market will begin at the market opening on Monday, October 29, 2007, under the new ticker symbols ``CAST,'' ``CASTW'' and ``CASTU'' for common shares, warrants and units respectively.

Ron Chan, Chairman and CEO of ChinaCast commented, ``We are very pleased to have our shares commence trading on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange, which we believe is recognized around the world as one of the largest and most respected U.S. markets as well as having very high listing standards. We hope that this will enhance the volume and tradability of ChinaCast shares thereby benefiting our shareholders.''



--------------------------------------------------------------------
I will probably drop CEUC.OB (CAST on Monday) from the list of undiscovered stocks, as I believe it has been discovered, judging by the latest volume and the news of Nasdaq listing.

Update on Chinacast Education (CEUC.OB)

Looks like CEUC.OB has just been approved for Nasdaq according to this SEC document filed last night:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261888/000095013407021980/f34850e8va12b.htm
Expecting PR on this now....

Also take a look a this nice write-up. Sums up my earlier research and more:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/51338-chinacast-education-undiscovered-undervalued-underplayed

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Update on AAAC.OB

Yesterday, there was a big block in the warrants - AAACW.OB - 380k. Today another decent block in common - 75k. I expect another filing on these transactions soon. Seems like a continuous accumulation. Company is completely under radar at this point.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Asia Automotive Acquisition Corp (AAAC.OB) - DD

As promised, here is full DD on new pick: Asia Automotive Acquisition Corp (AAAC.OB), which also has warrants AAACW.OB.

This is a blank check company (similar to how YTEC, SEED, HLSYF, and many other chinese companies started)>

I'm going to start of with this link:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1332552/000136231007002247/c71230exv99w2.htm
This link shows their presentation of the upcoming acquisition of Hunan Tongxin Enterprise.

Couple of highlights:


  • Revenue growth of 47% from 2004-2006
  • Growth of 28% in first half of 2007 over first half of 2006
  • Gross margin increase from 29.9% to 35.5%
  • EBITDA increase from 16.7% to 24.1%
  • 95% increase in net income from first half of 2006 to first half of 2007
  • Target net income in 2007 -> 9.5 mil (12.8 mil total O/S after the transaction and including incentives of 2 mil for reaching net income target) ...giving the total net earnings of 0.74 in 2007.
  • Total O/S after acquisition -> 12.8 mil including incentives, float is roughly 5 mil
  • Will seek NASDAQ listing after acquisition is complete
  • Additional 4 potential acquisitions are coming
  • Very experienced management with each having over 25/30 years experience in automotive industry


Now, as recent as last week, Jeff Feinberg bought a big chunk of shares increasing his share to 18% of current O/S. (total of just over 1 mil shares now owned by him)

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1088219/000091957407004751/xslF345X02/p788846a_ex.xml
Couple of financial facts from new company:

On a historical basis, Hunan TX Enterprise Co. Ltd(TX) had audited revenues of $66.6 million in 2006 compared to $58.8 million in the previous year, an increase of 13.3% and earned net income of $5.7 million in 2006 compared to $752k in the previous year, an increase of 658%.

As a performance incentive, 2 million shares will be issuable to TX management on an all or none basis by March, 2008 in the event that TX attains 2007 net income of $9.5 million, which would represent a 66.7% increase from 2006.

For the first six months of 2007, on a reviewed basis, TX had revenues of $41.1 million compared to $32.8 million in the same period in 2006, an increase of 28%. In the same periods, net income rose to $5.3 million from $2.7 million representing an increase of 94%.

This is taken from here: http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070918/cltu069.html?.v=96

Now, let's recap - in 2006, net income was $5.7 million. In first half of 2007 alone, they already had net income of $5.3 mil, increase of 94% over last year. They expect to have a net income of $9.5 mil with only 12.8 mil O/S after incentives and transaction. Stock is currently trading at $8, with PE for 2007 of less than 12. With the growth they have, they should be trading a lot higher once the transaction is complete, and they trade on NASDAQ.

This is exactly how YTEC (former YCHTF.OB started), which I highligted back in January of 2007. The number here are even better.

Warrants have an expiration date of April 11, 2012 - PLENTY of time, making it very safe buy. They have a strike of $5.

Do your own DD and good luck.

New - Asia Automotive Acquisition Corp (AAAC.OB)

Another potentially attractive chinese merger / acquisition with recent impressive buys by Jeff Feinberg is Asia Automotive Acquisition Corp (AAAC.OB and AAACW.OB)

They are acquiring profitable company - Hunan TX Enterprise Co., Ltd., with explosive growth. I will have a complete DD on this later tonight.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Update on Harbin Electric (HRBN)

Harbin Electric (HRBN) stock retreated from its highs for some minor profit taking. It used market weakness as an excuse. I believe this is just a small bump. Nothing has changed. With a possible strong day in the market tomorrow, we may see another jump in HRBN.

Update on CEUC.OB

A while ago, I profiled ChinaCast Education (CEUC.OB). You can find corresponding research in the earlier blog posting. Unfortunately, it completely dropped out of radar for many and it was slowly drifting down. In the past week, the stock made a big comeback, in large due to pretty good presentation posted on SEC site:

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261888/000117184307000548/exh_991.htm

But here is another kicker. Tomorrow's IPO - NED is in China Education sector, which will prompt others (already did) to search for sympathy plays. Chinacast Education (CEUC.OB) is definitely one of them. Again, refer to the previous posting for more information about this company.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Update on Harbin Electric (HRBN)

I remember back in the days, YTEC was barely trading 30k a day when I first mentioned it 9 months ago....sometimes even less....it traded that much for very long time....now 100%+ higher, people are jumping all over it with at least 1mil a day.

I dropped YTEC from the list of undiscovered stocks now, as I mentioned few days ago, but HRBN is still here. It barely gets 100k day. With its float less than 4 mil, and just awesome fundamentals, earnings and revenues projections, and trading near all time high, I see it's just waiting to make a significant move.

Notice how very small fluffy PRs move the stocks lately? SEED - latest example. Company with not so good earnings announced earlier, moved up 60%+ today on very small PR that it's named as one of 200 (!!!) companies of some list.

Or CHNR going up on just pure momentum without any real news.

Imagine when HRBN releases good PR as it always does. It's not a question of "if". It's just a question of "when". Volume of anything over 300k will take it very high. For now, it still remains an "undiscovered" stock.

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

Update on Conrad Industries (CNRD.PK)

From TA Perspective, chart is ready for a massive breakout. Perfect "Cup and Handle" has been formed. Take a look: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=cnrd

The breakout coupled with pre-earnings run may take the stock up really high from the current $17's levels...

NEW - Jaguar Acquisition Corporation (JGAC.OB)

This one is very risky play as there are still many unknowns. So, highly speculative stock. Use extreme caution.

STV - China Digital TV Holding opened on NYSE with the boom...going from roughly $30 to $55 in 2 days. China TV market is hot.

Well, look at this company - Jaguar Acquisition Corporation. (JGAC.OB).
They just announced letter of intent to acquire China Cablecom Ltd.

Expecting news on this within 2 weeks according to the PR below:

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/070927/0307525.html



Jaguar Acquisition Corporation Announces Letter of Intent to Acquire China Cablecom Ltd.
Thursday September 27, 8:00 am ET


Jaguar Intends to Enter the Rapidly Growing Cable TV Sector in China; China Cablecom Is an Emerging Consolidator of Cable TV Operating Companies Focused on China's Shandong Province; China Cablecom Raises $20 Million Bridge-Financing to Secure Acquisition


CONSHOHOCKEN, PA--(MARKET WIRE)--Sep 27, 2007 -- Jaguar Acquisition Corporation (OTC BB:JGAC.OB - News), a special purpose acquisition company ("Jaguar"), today announced a Letter of Intent ("LOI") to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of China Cablecom Ltd., a British Virgin Islands company, ("China Cablecom"), an emerging consolidated cable network operator in the highly populated Shandong Province in the People's Republic of China (PRC). To secure this proposed transaction, China Cablecom has raised $20 million of debt and equity bridge financing. Chardan Capital Markets acted as placement agent in the transaction.
ADVERTISEMENT


The Company anticipates providing further details on this proposed transaction in the next two to three weeks.

Pursuant to the provisions of its certificate of incorporation, the Company now has until April 13, 2008 to complete its business combination, having satisfied the criteria for extension set forth in the certificate of incorporation. The Company anticipates signing a definitive agreement relating to its business combination within the next 30 days




Again, use extreme caution and do your own DD.

Monday, October 8, 2007

Update on Conrad Industries (CNRD.PK)

Just a quick note update on Conrad Indusries (CNRD.PK). Seems like the new base has been set at around $16.80. Breaking above $17.50 will indicate a major breakout. This is just a TA. The quarterly earnings will probably be released in a little over a month. So, I definitely expect a run the closer it gets to the earnings date. Nevertheless, daily fluctuations don't really matter, as this is a long term play with its current value at least $30 dollars, being undervalued only due to its PK status.

Friday, October 5, 2007

T-Bay Holdings Inc. (TBYH.OB) - New

This week we saw a big jump in shares of Orsus Xelent Technologies Inc (AMEX:ORS), designer and manufacturer of award-winning mobile phones for the Asian market, due to their PR regarding updated forecasts.

Well, here is really undervalued and underfollowed stock, which found just a little bit of interest today and moved quickly before retreating on profit taking. This one could really appreciate much higher on its fundamentals along.

Here is the profile:

T-Bay Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of mobile handset design and other services to mobile handset brand owners in the People's Republic of China. It offers mobile handset design, industrial and mechanical design, software design, hardware design, and other design services, including GPS device, auto communication system, and radio frequency design. The company also manufactures components, including printed circuit boards and printed circuit board assembly, and whole mobile handsets, as well as after-sale maintenance services. T-Bay Holdings has strategic partnerships with VIA Technologies, Inc.; MediaTek, Inc., Ltd.; Anyka, Inc.; Infineon, Inc.; and Skyworks. It sells its products primarily in southeast Asia, eastern Europe, and Latin America. The company is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

First, some numbers ->

ORS O/S - 29 mil , float 5 mil
TBYH.OB O/S - 30 mil, float 11 mil

ORS -> Revenues for last year - 68 mil, net income - 6.7 mil, EPS - 0.24
TBYH.OB -> Revenues for last year - 35 mil, net income - 12 mil, EPS - 0.41

TBYH.OB is also projected to make 0.62 this year, and 1.01 next.

But enough of comparison. TBYH.OB does more than just mobil handset design.


Here is interesting PR:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070726/cnth013.html?.v=33


TBYH Expects Revenue Growth of 30-40% in FY07-08
Thursday July 26, 9:00 am ET


SHANGHAI, China, July 26 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- T-Bay Holdings Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: TBYH - News) today announced that for fiscal year 07-08, it expects the revenue growth in the range of 30%-40%, and net profit growth of 20-30%. The Company anticipates growth would be mainly attributed to additional design solutions it expects to introduce in the market, the continued strong performance of our existing customers and planned new projects including 3G products.
ADVERTISEMENT


The Company plans to release more than 30 total design solutions based on 4 chipset platforms in fiscal year 07-08, compared to 21 solutions based on one platform in fiscal year 06-07. This represents an anticipated 42.9% growth, and should enable the company to provide solutions covering high-end, mid-end and low-end markets.

Mr. Xiaofeng Li, the CEO of T-Bay said, "Our partnership with MTK, VIA, ANYKA, INFINEON, SKYWORKS has broadened our product lines. For the last fiscal year, we have made considerable investment in upgrading our equipment to improve our R&D capacity. We intend to continuously introduce new solutions with the world's most advanced technologies.''

''Another driver of revenue growth is from our existing customers. Currently, we have about 50 customers, most of whom performed well in the past few months. Based on the volume of purchase orders from our customers, we believe some of our big customers are gaining more market share,'' Mr. Li added. ''We have a diversified customer base which includes mobile handset manufacturers, brand name owners and distributors. We also expect to cooperate with telecom operators in the foreseeable future.''

"In addition, we expect new projects, including the RF design project, 3G extended products, as well as our new Fujian plant, will bring additional revenue from Q3 this year,'' Mr. Li said. ''We successfully achieved 38% growth in revenue with 21% growth in net profit for FY06-07, and we expect another good year with revenue growth of 30-40% and net profit growth of 20- 30%.''


Finally, I believe they also are trying to get to Nasdaq. I will check on that.

This is very undervalued chinese play that is trading at the trailing PE of 8.
And at forward PE of just above 3 for 2009.

It has very thin trading, not many follow it. So, be careful.

Make your own decisions. Good luck.

Update on few stocks

Just an update on some stocks -

Since YTEC has now consistently showing decent volume, I'm dropping it from the list of undiscovered stocks and will no longer provide updates on it.

HRBN and CNRD.PK are still trading on very low volume. I believe they both still have a great potential. You have to really be careful with low volume low float stocks.

Updating the post on September 26th, when I said once HRBN breaks through 14.50-15.00 level, we'll see first target of $19. Well, this week it reached that target. This is only first target just on technical breakout. Once it starts releasing news and the volume picks up, we'll see well north of $21 level.

Please do your DD before jumping in to these low volume stocks.

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Update on Harbin Electric (HRBN)

Harbin Electric had an excellent presentation at William Blair & Company on October 3rd. Please listen to it here: http://www.wsw.com/webcast/blair9/hrbn/

You can see slides there as well. Presentation is long (30 minutes), but really good...Definitely the best to date..

Few highlights from the presentation:



  • Projected revenues for 2010 are $350M. That compares with just $40 mil in 2006. (that's nearly 9 times higher from current levels)

  • Started shipping products to one of the "Big 3" auto manufacturers in US.

  • New facility in Shanghai will open in Q2 2008. Will increase micro-motor units production from 2.4 million currently to 10 million once built.

  • Margins consistently stay above 45% and will continue to stay that way, while industry standard is high teens up to 20%..

  • The only Chinese manufacturer in its sector that owns a number of patents for its motors and system designs

  • The first and only Chinese company that has received contracts from the government to develop a linear motor system for building an urban mass transportation infrastructure domestically

  • Currently the only Chinese manufacturer producing linear motors for blue chip US Companies

  • Tax rate: 0% thru 2007, only 7.5% in 2008-2010

  • Established representative office in US for business development



Overall, great presentation. Worth listening to...

Even though the stock has reached new all time high levels recently, it's still not getting the volume. I expect the stock to appreciate to much higher levels from here in the long run.

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